They call it awards season for a reason. Hollywood’s annual biggest night, the Oscars, is actually the last in a long line of awards shows, including the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards, and the British Academy Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs).
When you look at the end results of all of these, it starts to become pretty easy to predict who’ll pick up the Oscars, at least to an extent. While it may not be possible to pin down the first place finisher in each category, it’s usually easy to narrow it down to two or three possible winners, and they almost always take home the prize.
The major other awards shows are the best at predicting the winners in the Oscars’ biggest categories, including acting and directing, which tend to be the ones audiences care most about. Although there’s always the possibility of an upset (as in 2017, when Moonlight beat La La Land for Best Picture), the Oscars seem increasingly predictable, which may be causing audiences to tune out.